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Prognosfruit, the Annual Apple & Pear Event


09/08/2010 ¦ News


Close to 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met in Kiev, Ukraine from 5-7th August 2010 on the occasion of the 34th Prognosfruit Conference. The conference was hosted by the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation and the International Finance Corporation (IFC).


On this occasion, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released the 2010 European apple and pear crop estimates. The apple production is 11% down on last year’s crop resulting from lower volumes across all Europe. Pear production is set to fall even sharper with the 2010 crop forecasted to be down by 19%. The main reason for the production fall is related to bad weather conditions during and just after blossoming and a dry summer.


More specifically for apples, the 2010 European crop forecast is announced at 9.796.000 MT, a decrease of 11% compared to the previous year and 7% below the average of the last three years. In regard to varieties, Golden Delicious remains the largest variety, representing 23% of total production, however the 2010 Golden production will be down 8% at 2.427.000 MT. Gala, representing today nearly 10% of the apple output experiences a similar decline at 1.002.000 MT. Red Delicious represents approximately 7% of the EU crop with 663.000 MT expected to be harvested. Jonagold represents 5% of the current crop and is reported to have decreased production by 30% to 515.000 MT. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops are also expected to decrease compared to last year, namely in China (-9%) and most probably also in the USA (-2%), subject to confirmation at the forthcoming US Apple Outlook conference on 20 August. In other countries production decreased, as for example in Russia (-17%), Switzerland (-25%), Turkey (-5%); whereas the Ukrainian apple production increased with 5% at 896.000 MT.


Regarding pears, European growers are predicting a sharp decline of 19% compared to 2009. Total estimated production reaches 2.155.000 MT, the lowest level of production in the past decade. The 2010 forecasted crop is down by 12% compared to the average crop of the last three years. In 2010, the Conference variety production is foreseen to decrease by 15% to 766.000 MT. Conference remains the largest variety representing 35% of the pear production in Europe. William BC (almost 13% of the pear production) will be down by 10% to 280.000M T and Abate Fetel (9% of the production) is expected to decrease by 35% to 199.000 MT. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops have also decreased compared to last year, namely in Turkey (-5%) and Ukraine (-35%) as well as the USA (-11%). Nevertheless, production is forecasted to slightly increase in China to a level of 14,5 million MT.



During Prognosfruit and with a view to the forthcoming season, Alessandro Dalpiaz, President of WAPA, identified a similar outlook for both the apple and pear market. "All parameters are indicating a good starting position for the 2010-2011 season, as there are little stocks left from the previous season and Southern Hemisphere exports have been in line with the market demand. With regard to apples, the better outlook for the processing market is also positive for the fresh market. On the basis of the Prognosfuit data, the European apple and pear sector is looking forward to a more favourable season following the last 2 seasons with disappointing results.”


European apple and pear crop forecast 2010 - summary