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Prognosfruit, the Annual Apple & Pear Event


05-08-11 ¦ News


Around 250 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met on the occasion of the 35th Prognosfruit Conference on 5th August, for the first time ever taking place in Ljubljana, Slovenia. On this occasion, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released the 2011 European apple and pear crop estimates. The apple production in the EU will in 2011 increase by 5% compared to the low crop of last year. Regarding pears, European growers predict a recovery of production after the peak low of 2010, leading consequently this year to a crop increase by 12% compared to last year.


More specifically for apples, the 2011 European crop forecast is announced at 10.195.000 T. This production remains however a 5% lower than the average for the last three years. In regard to varieties, Golden Delicious production will be up by 5% to 2.533.000 T. Gala will increase by 7% to 1.059.000 T. Jonagold will be up by 14% at 594.000 T, while Red Delicious will decrease by 4% to 635.000 T. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops are also expected to increase compared to last year, namely in China (+10%), in the USA (+2%), and most notably in Ukraine (+17%).


Regarding pears, a higher production by 12% compared to 2010 is expected, reaching a total crop of 2.533.000 T. The 2011 forecasted crop is also 8% higher than the average crop of the last three years. In 2011, the Conference variety will see its production increased by 8% to 889.000 T, William BC will be up by 8% to 307.000 T, and Abate F will also increase by 66% to 370.000 T. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops have also increased compared to last year, namely in Turkey (+3%), the USA (+7%) as well as in Ukraine (+25%).


Overall across Europe, an early blossom is leading to an anticipation of the crops by 1 to 2 weeks depending on the region. Climatic conditions have overall been favourable which should enhance quality and size. Besides, the new season is due to start with no stock handover from last season, and expected limited overlap or discrepancies due to Southern Hemisphere production given moderate import into the EU.


The season is however kicking off on a complex market situation for fresh produce in general, following the EHEC crisis for vegetables, stacked stonefruit market, but also poor demand on citrus and bananas. The economic uncertainties and lack of fresh produce consumption are remaining points of concern for the swift development of the season to provide European apples and pears growers the return that the overall quality of the 2011 crop would deserve.


European apple and pear crop forecast 2011 - summary