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Prognosfruit, the Annual Apple & Pear Event

PRognosfruit releases apples and pears crop forecast for Europe

09-08-18 ¦ News


The 2018 European  apple  and pear crop forecast estimates that most European countries are moving back to a full crop, after experiencing a severe setback last  year due  to April and early May frosts.  On 9 August 2018, close to 300  representatives  of  the  international  apple  and  pear  sector  met  at  the  Prognosfruit  Conference in Warsaw, Poland.  During the conference, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2018 European apple and pear crop estimate. This year, the apple production in the EU is set at 12,6 million T due to favourable weather conditions. This represents a recovery of 36% compared to last year’s low crop but is only a 3% increase compared to the average crop of 2014 to 2016. The pear crop is predicted at 2,3 million T, increasing by 4% compared to 2017.


This year’s apple crop is going back to a complete crop due to favourable climatic conditions across Europe with mild winter, no late frost, and limited impact of hail so far. The crop forecast for apple stands at 12,6 million T, with a  strong crop in  Poland (almost 4,5  million T) and average crop in  Italy  and France. Warmer conditions during blossoming and fruit setting led to the crop being ready for picking ca two weeks earlier than average in the northern regions. The sunshine has given the fruit sweetness due to a high brix level, meeting consumers’ expectations. Stocks from last season are already cleared from the market and there is limited presence of Southern Hemisphere fruit, hence there will be no overhanging stocks on the market. This means the market will soon be supplied by fresh apples. There will also be a strong demand for apples from the processing industry. Additionally, the larger crop is part of a process of varietal diversification to meet new consumer expectations, leading to a market with multiple dynamics. Besides, beyond Europe this season might be influenced by other parameters, including the frost experience in China. This could influence the balance on the global market for both fresh and processed apples. The total European pear crop in 2018 is estimated at 2.327.000 T, which is a 4% increase compared to last year, and a 3% increase compared to the average of the last three years.


The large apple crop and the pear crop need to be held against a complex market access situation, given the ongoing consequences of the Russian embargo as well as other market closures or restrictions in the Mediterranean basin. Efforts to diversify the market and boost consumption need to continue. The drought and heat wave in several parts of Europe so far have had limited impact on the crop, the size, and the   overall quality. However, a revision downwards of some of the figures presented at Prognosfruit is to be expected in the upcoming weeks. WAPA will continue to monitor the   developments of the   Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when appropriate.





CONTACT: Mr Philippe  BINARD / Ms Helene Deruwe – WAPA –



WAPA was founded in August 2001 with the objectives of providing a forum for discussion on matters of interest to the apple and pear  business and  initiating recommendations to  strengthen the  sector. The current President of the  Association is Todd  Fryhover of Washington Apple Commission in the  USA and  the  current Vice-President is Nic Dicey from  Hortgro  Pome  in South Africa. WAPA membership includes the following countries and areas: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, China,  France,  Germany, Italy, Moldova, the  Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Scandinavia, Slovenia, South Africa, Ukraine, the UK and the USA.