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Prognosfruit, the Annual Apple & Pear Event

Prognosfruit 2021 releases its annual apple and pear crop forecast, showing a 10% increase in apple production and a 28% decrease for pears

05-08-21 ¦ News


Prognosfruit’s 2021 European apple and pear crop forecast revealed that while apple production is set to increase by 10%, the upcoming pear crop is expected to decrease by 28%. On 5 August 2021, more than 150 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined the Prognosfruit 2021 Online Conference, the second virtual edition of the event in its 46 years, to discuss the 2021 production forecast for apples and pears.


The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2021/2022 European apple and pear crop estimate on the occasion of the 46th edition of the Prognosfruit. Philippe Binard stated: “The apple production in the EU for the 21 top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated for the 2021/2022 season to be 11.735,000 T. Overall, this year’s crop is estimated to be 10% higher than last year, but 1% only up from the 3-year average. It is therefore perceived to be a season with a balanced outlook”.  The European crop continues its adaptation of the varieties and quality specifications demanded by consumers. Dominik Wozniak, President of WAPA, indicated:  “The new season is due to start in general one week later than average. Size across Europe are catching up to be more on the average size for this season compared to the average. The market outlook is promising to be balanced between opportunities on the domestic market, with development on strategic export markets as well as volume for processing estimated to be about 4 Mio T, balancing supply being the fresh and processed markets. Organic production continues to grow slowly each year reaching now around 6% of total EU crop”.


Philippe Binard added ”While the EU apple crop is larger, the EU pear crop for 2021/2022 is estimated to decrease by 28% compared to last year to 1.604.000 T and by 27% compared to the three-year average. This is the smallest decade crop for pears” On the varieties, this translates into a decrease of Conference pear by 18% to 805.000 T.  Abate is also impacted with a crop reduced to 66.000 T, down by 73%”. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when available.


The 2021 virtual conference featured a presentation of the forecast for apples and pears by WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard, a market analysis by AMI Market Analyst Helwig Schwartau, an overview of the latest trends in processing by Austria Juice CEO Franz Ennser and for organic by Europäisches Bioobst-Forum President Fritz Prem. Video contributions from experts from China, Russia, India, and the USA provided to the conference a global outreach with a picture from the whole Northern Hemisphere crop forecast. The two panel discussions for apples and pears informed more in detail about the development in the leading producing countries and a view on the development of the Southern Hemisphere season.   


Luc Vanoideek (COPA COGECA-VBT) commented on the season: “The apple and pear sector should not wait and watch the market, so that the season can take all the full potential of weeks ahead for the marketing of the new crop”. He added in his concluding remarks: ”Addressing production challenges, permanently improving quality, coping with the Farm to Fork requirements, and looking at export opportunities are key for a successful season”.  


Prognosfruit remains the lead industry event for the apples and pears sector. Philippe Binard concluded: “While the online events are very successful and informative with easier access, we are all looking forward to meeting our participants in Belgrade (Serbia) in August 2022 and enjoy the hospitality of Serbia Does Apples. Belgrade is scheduled to host the first in-person version of Prognosfruit when COVID-19 measures so allow”.


The summary of the forecast 2021/2022 is available on .